National Grid has published its 2015 Summer Outlook. It forecast generation margins to be at a comfortable level. The peak weather-corrected high summer period demand is the lowest ever, at 37.5GW.
The company has attributed this to the increase in embedded solar PV installations, which have nearly doubled from 2.4GW to 4.4GW in a year. Low demand as solar power ramps up towards the summer is likely to weigh on prices.
Day-ahead gas decreased 1.0% month-on-month, averaging 46.9 p/th. Long-term gas contracts also declined, with the winter 15 contract averaging 1.0% less in April at 50.5 p/th. The annual October 15 contract ended the month at a six-week low of 46.5 p/th.
The gas market is being affected by above seasonal norm temperatures which reduced demand and pulled down day-ahead prices. The supply outlook is healthy, with further LNG deliveries expected next month.
Day-ahead power increased 7.4% to average £44.0/MWh. Prices ended the month at £42.8/MWh.
The winter 15 contract remained unchanged at an average of £46.8/MWh this month. The annual October 15 contract climbed 0.5% to average £45.1/MWh.
Short-term power prices increased following a drop in wind generation, which was down 44% month-on-month.
On the European markets, average GB prices increased month-on-month but prices in other European markets fell.
French power decreased 7.8% to average £31.0/MWh.
At the end of the month, GB day-ahead prices were 51.2% higher than the European average.
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