Innovative Energy Consultancy Ltd
Innovative Energy Consultancy Ltd

July Markets Update

Gas market trends

  • All seasonal gas contracts fell in June, decreasing 1.5% on average.
  • Winter 19 gas dropped 5.7% to average 51.3p/th.
  • Summer 20 gas fell 1.7%, averaging 44.4p/th in June, a 1.1% increase from the same time last year.
  • The annual October gas contract fell 3.9% to average 47.9p/th, 4.3% lower than the same time last year.
  • Day-ahead gas fell for the ninth consecutive month, down 12.1% to average 28.0p/th. This is a result of over-supply and warm temperatures dampening demand. Winter 19 gas decreased 5.7% to average 51.3p/th, 8.5% lower than June 2018.

 

Power market trends

  • All seasonal baseload power contracts lowered in June, down 1.5% on average.
  • Winter 19 power averaged £55.7/MWh, a 3.7% decrease on the previous month.
  • Seasonal power contracts mirrored gas contracts as gas-fired power generation continues to dominate.
  • The annual October 19 power contract decreased by 2.8% to average £51.8/MWh, up 4.3% from June last year.
  • Day-ahead power fell 4.0% to average £39.4/MWh in June, the sixth consecutive monthly decline. At the end of the month the contract was £36.1/MWh.

 

World Oil

  • Brent crude oil prices declined again (the second consecutive month), down 10.8% to average $62.9/bl in June. Oil prices peaked at $66.9/bl at the end of the month due to the anticipated positive outcome of US-China trade talks expected from the G20 summit.

Coal

  • API 2 coal prices dropped for the sixth consecutive month, down 7.2% to average $64.0/t in June. Again, demand was dampened by higher temperatures.

Carbon EU ETS

  • EU ETS carbon fell for a second month, slipping 1.4%. The European heatwave led to a rise in cooling-demand which led to an increase in demand for EUAs. Brexit uncertainty to put pressure on EU ETS carbon.