Natural gas prices decreased by 2% on average at the end of September, though began to recover at the start of October, partly as a result of positive renewables generation.
Day-ahead closed the month of September at 24.80p/th, that is 2.3% lower, week-on-week, while month-ahead decreased by 8.3% within-week and settled at 30.75p/th.
The Winter 19 contract decreased to 47.25p/th and Summer 20 decreased to 45.00p/th.
Power market trends
Wholesale power prices increased by 2.1% at the start of October, largely due to a short-term spike in the oil market as a result of the attack on an Iranian tanker near the Saudi coast although there was a healthy level of wind generation too, with renewables accounting for more than 50% of Britain’s power generation mix.
At the end of September, Day-ahead fell by 2.5% and closed at £36.00/MWh while month ahead increased to £51.40/MWh.
The Winter 19 contract settled at £52.90/MWh and Summer 20 at £48.65/MWh.
In September, oil prices decreased by 5.3% due to a British tanker detained by Iran for 10 weeks which inflamed tensions along an important global shipping route.
Brent crude oil has firmed by $2.16/bbl in recent days, largely as a result of the US-China trade talks. The outlook looks rather bearish, the US has reached new record levels of oil production, at 12.6 million barrels per day.
API2 has lowered to around $50/t, a steep downward curve, having been at $95/t a year ago, partly due to reduced demand in Europe. However, prices remain above 2016 levels.
Carbon EU ETS
European carbon prices increased significantly at the start of October amid news that a Brexit deal was imminent.