Innovative Energy Consultancy Ltd
Innovative Energy Consultancy Ltd

October Markets Update

Gas market trends

  • Natural gas prices decreased by 2% on average at the end of September, though began to recover at the start of October, partly as a result of positive renewables generation.
  • Day-ahead closed the month of September at 24.80p/th, that is 2.3% lower, week-on-week, while month-ahead decreased by 8.3% within-week and settled at 30.75p/th.
  • The Winter 19 contract decreased to 47.25p/th and Summer 20 decreased to 45.00p/th.
gas market graph october 2019

Power market trends

  • Wholesale power prices increased by 2.1% at the start of October, largely due to a short-term spike in the oil market as a result of the attack on an Iranian tanker near the Saudi coast although there was a healthy level of wind generation too, with renewables accounting for more than 50% of Britain’s power generation mix.
  • At the end of September, Day-ahead fell by 2.5% and closed at £36.00/MWh while month ahead increased to £51.40/MWh.
  • The Winter 19 contract settled at £52.90/MWh and Summer 20 at £48.65/MWh.
electricity graph october 2019

Oil

  • In September, oil prices decreased by 5.3% due to a British tanker detained by Iran for 10 weeks which inflamed tensions along an important global shipping route.
  • Brent crude oil has firmed by $2.16/bbl in recent days, largely as a result of the US-China trade talks. The outlook looks rather bearish, the US has reached new record levels of oil production, at 12.6 million barrels per day.

Coal

  • API2 has lowered to around $50/t, a steep downward curve, having been at $95/t a year ago, partly due to reduced demand in Europe. However, prices remain above 2016 levels.

Carbon EU ETS

  • European carbon prices increased significantly at the start of October amid news that a Brexit deal was imminent.