Innovative Energy Consultancy Ltd
Innovative Energy Consultancy Ltd

Seasonal power and gas contracts decline

Seasonal power and gas contracts declined to record lows in November. 

Annual April 16 gas fell 9.0% to average 36.9p/th, as lower oil prices and a strong supply outlook weighed on the contract. Rising LNG supplies are expected to continue in the medium and long-term with imports up 35.9% in November compared to the same month last year. 

Annual April 16 power followed gas and coal prices down, slipping 6.3% to average £39.1.MWh, reaching a contract low of £38.3/MWh on 12 November.

Spot gas and power contracts also decreased.  Day-ahead gas fell 9.2% to average 36.0p/th, reaching a five-year low of 33.4p/th on 12 November.  This resulted from forecast temperatures being 20.6% above the seasonal norm. 

Day-ahead power fell 5.7% to average £38.1/MWh, hitting £35.0/MWh on 12 November: the lowest price since July 2014.  Greater wind generation, up 91% on the previous month, and mild temperatures depressed prices.

Brent crude oil declined 6.2% to average $46.4/bl in November.  Oil began the month rising on supply concerns from Libya and Brazil.  However, prices later declined, hitting a three-month low of $43.9/bl on 23 November, amid weak Chinese demand data, high OPEC production and record high OECD crude inventory levels.

EU ETS carbon rose 1.4% to average €8.5/t.