Innovative Energy Consultancy Ltd
Innovative Energy Consultancy Ltd

June Markets Update

Gas market trends

All seasonal gas contracts fell in May, decreasing 3.0% on average. Winter 19 gas dropped 3.1% to average 54.5p/th. Summer 20 gas lost 2.7%, averaging 45.2p/th in May, a 3.1% increase from the same time last year. The annual October gas contract fell 2.9% to average 49.8p/th, 0.5% lower than the same time last year.

Day-ahead gas fell for the eighth consecutive month, down 10.2% to average 31.9p/th. This is a result of over-supply and warm temperatures dampening demand. Winter 19 gas decreased 3.1% to average 54.5p/th, 3.3% lower than this time last year.

 

Power market trends

All seasonal baseload power contracts lowered in May, down 2.3% on average. Winter 19 power averaged £57.8/MWh, a 1.6% decrease on the previous month. Seasonal power contracts mirrored gas contracts as gas-fired power generation continues to dominate. The annual October 19 power contract decreased by 1.9% to average £53.3/MWh, up 6.7% from May last year.

Day-ahead power fell 6.0% to average £41.1/MWh in May, its fifth consecutive monthly decline. At the end of the month the contract was £35.6/MWh, almost its lowest for two years. Month-ahead power was down 6.5% to average £41.8/MWh, 15.3% lower year-on-year. Day-ahead power prices continued to lower.

World Oil

Brent crude oil prices declined for the first time this year, down 1.3% to average $70.5/bl in May. Oil prices ended the month at $64.9/bl, the lowest since mid-February, amid concerns that the ongoing US-China trade dispute will lower demand for oil.

 

Coal

API 2 coal prices dropped again, down 5.5% to average $68.9/t with coal ending the month at a two-year low. Again, demand was dampened by weaker demand due to higher temperatures and cheaper gas prices.

 

Carbon EU ETS

EU ETS carbon fell for the first time since February, slipping 0.3%, partly as a result of high renewables generation throughout Europe. Brexit uncertainty was also a factor behind carbon price changes.