Innovative Energy Consultancy Ltd
Innovative Energy Consultancy Ltd

Day ahead power surges to 10-year high

In September, day-ahead gas moved 10.2% lower to average 27.9p/th. Day-ahead power soared 45.6% to £53.2/MWh.

On 16 September, the contract rocketed 339.4% to £157.7/MWh.

This was the highest price since March 2006, as peak wind power forecasts dropped below 1GW, tightening margins in the UK. In addition, continental European imports were lowered by 2GW on the back of planned interconnector outages.

Seasonal gas prices declined 3.7% on average, despite a slight climb in oil prices. Winter 16 gas experienced the largest drop (of 5.6%) to average 39.6p/th. Summer 17 gas decreased 3.1% to 36.8p/th. Seasonal gas prices remained below their levels last year.

Centrica has said it will make 20 wells available at Rough gas storage facility from 1 November 2016. All 30 wells had been expected to be offline until spring 2017. This has improved the supply outlook for the coming winter and pulled prices down.

Seasonal baseload power contracts on average decreased 0.9% in September, following their gas counterparts lower. Winter 16 power fell 0.1% to £45.8/MWh. Summer 17 power went down 0.9% to £38.6/MWh.

Oil rose as OPEC members agreed on preliminary output cut

Brent crude oil prices rose 0.8% to average $47.1/bl in September.

OPEC members agreed on a preliminary outline to cut its collective output to between 32.5mn bl/d and 33mn bl/d. The cartel has not approved a production cut since 2008.

API 2 coal went up 0.3% to average $58.6/t. On Friday 29 September prices reached $64.8/t, the highest price since January 2015.

EU ETS carbon lost 10.4% to average €4.2/t. On Monday 5 September, EU ETS carbon fell to €3.9/t, the lowest price in over three years, following a weak auction.

The month ahead: Tightest winter in history

National Grid’s forecasts confirm winter 2016-17 is set to be the tightest period in the GB power market’s two decade history.

A rise in LNG exports from Australia and the US is expected to swell global LNG supplies from the end of this year, potentially boosting LNG deliveries into the UK.

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