Innovative Energy Consultancy Ltd
Innovative Energy Consultancy Ltd

Strong supplies hold down prices in April

Temperatures were above the seasonal norm for much of last month, reducing demand for gas.

This fed through into lower prices, with the day-ahead contract decreasing 1.0% month-on-month to average 46.9p/th in April. The month-ahead contract declined 3.0% to average 45.6p/th, with further LNG deliveries in May expected to top up already high LNG stocks.

These falls extended into the long-term contracts, with a decrease in the annual October 15 contract of 0.5% to average 47.7 p/th in the month.

Wind generation was low in April, with the daily average output falling by 44% from March. This led to an increase in day-ahead power prices, which were up 7.4% to average £44.0/MWh over the month.

Oil prices recovered slightly this month and averaged $60.4/bl across April, a 5.5% increase from March. Prices were boosted by an International Energy Agency report that raised the organisation’s global oil demand forecast, and conflict in the Middle East increasing security of supply concerns.

Coal prices continued their decline as the market remained oversupplied, following a drop in demand from China and the US. Prices hit a firve-year low of $55.4/t on 8 April.

Carbon prices increased 4.1% in April, averaging €7.1/t over the month, as market reform negotiations between the European Parliament and Council continue. Prices were also boosted at the end of the month by last-minute compliance buying ahead of the annual 30 April submission deadline.

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